Now More Than Ever: Measuring Vulnerability to Modern Slavery in 2021
By Riya Sirkhell
On any given day in 2016, 40.3 million people globally were estimated to be in situations of modern slavery.[1] Victims of modern slavery are often the most vulnerable in our societies, those suffering multiple forms of discrimination – in particular women - who account for 71 percent of the overall total.[2]
Today, the world is facing a unique crisis, as governments navigate new and exacerbated levels of insecurity driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, social unrest, and conflict. The COVID-19 pandemic risks driving millions of vulnerable individuals into modern slavery and other forms of exploitation due to economic turmoil and weak social safety nets.[3] As most governments struggle to bring their economies back on track and open-up slowly, a large population including but not limited to migrant workers, temporary immigrants, informal labour, women, and children, are all at a higher risk than ever of being pushed into trafficking and exploitation.
The pandemic has posed new threats to human security for different populations giving rise to increased vulnerability. Broken supply chains worldwide have led to factory closures and mass unemployment among workers. It is estimated that one million garment factory workers were laid off or suspended in Bangladesh in March 2020 alone.[4] We also know that many girls kept from school today as a result of lockdowns will never return, their childhood stolen by marriage. The United Nations Population Agency predicts that 13 million more child marriages could take place over the next decade because of COVID-19 restrictions on education, health care, and increased economic hardship.[5]
The impacts of the climate crisis are equally as damaging, with over 143 million people from Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America projected to be forced to migrate by 2050 to escape the slow-onset impacts of climate change.[6] Conflict and unrest are also driving humanitarian catastrophe in countries such as Yemen,[7] and generating unprecedented levels of those who are forcibly displaced – 79.5 million by the end of 2019.[8] This has catastrophic impacts on the risk to modern slavery, with slavery and human trafficking estimated to be present in 90 percent of modern wars.[9]
With the release of the fifth iteration of Walk Free’s Global Slavery Index (GSI) currently in production, understanding vulnerability to modern slavery is critically important – now more than ever. Understanding a problem is fundamental to being able to respond effectively and efficiently to it. With the world’s population significantly more vulnerable to situations of modern slavery in 2020 due to COVID-19, the measurement of such a phenomenon becomes crucial in better determining where modern slavery may be occurring completely out of sight, within “blind spots.”
At the global level, Walk Free has utilized a statistical vulnerability model to assist in identifying the factors that explain or predict the prevalence of modern slavery since the first edition of the GSI in 2012.[10] In recognition of the valuable role that vulnerability plays in understanding drivers of modern slavery, five regional vulnerability model exercises utilizing unique data sources for the Americas, Asia and the Pacific, Africa, Europe, and the Arab States region are also being tested. Guided by crime prevention theory[11] and the human-security framework,[12] the regional models will provide a nuanced understanding of vulnerability factors specific to these particular geographies. Through this, we can work to prevent vulnerable persons from becoming caught in situations of modern slavery in the first place.
As we enter 2021, the impact of last year continues to be felt. Millions around the world have not heard the rallying cry from the international community that “we are all in this together.” Governments must reach the world’s most vulnerable and marginalized people if there is any hope of building back better in a post-COVID world. Accordingly, vulnerability modelling from a regional level is a strategic attempt to bring forgotten populations to the fore so that concrete steps can be taken to minimize and prevent situations of modern slavery across the world. The time has never been so pressing.
Works Cited
[1] Modern slavery is an umbrella term, encompassing situations of exploitation that a person cannot refuse or leave because of threats, violence, coercion, deception, and/or abuse of power. It includes situations such as forced marriage, forced labour, debt bondage, and human trafficking. International Labour Office (ILO) & Walk Free Foundation 2017, Methodology of the global estimates of modern slavery: Forced labour and forced marriage, ILO. Available from: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_575479.pdf. [11 November 2020].
[2] International Labour Office (ILO) & Walk Free Foundation 2017, Methodology of the global estimates of modern slavery: Forced labour and forced marriage, ILO. Available from: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_575479.pdf. [11 November 2020].
[3] United Nations 2020, COVID-19 could push millions into exploitation or slavery, UN expert warns. Available from: https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=26246&LangID=E. [11 November 2020].
[4] Business and Human Rights Resource Centre 2020, Bangladesh: Survey of garment factories reveals a million workers fired or temporarily suspended without pay or severance, as retailers cancel orders & refuse to pay for goods produced amid pandemic. Available from: https://www.business-humanrights.org/it/ultime-notizie/bangladesh-survey-of-garment-factories-reveals-a-million-workers-fired-or-temporarily-suspended-without-pay-or-severance-as-retailers-cancel-orders-refuse-to-pay-for-goods-produced-amid-pandemic/. [30 November 2020].
[5] UNFPA 2020, Millions more cases of violence, child marriage, female genital mutilation, unintended pregnancy expected due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Available from: https://www.unfpa.org/news/millions-more-cases-violence-child-marriage-female-genital-mutilation-unintended-pregnancies. [11 November 2020].
[6] Rigaud, Kanta Kumari et al. 2018, Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, World Bank. Available from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29461. [11 November 2020].
[7] US Department of State 2019, Trafficking in Persons Report: Yemen. Available from: https://public-preview-server.prod.cstreetsandbox.com/reports/2019-trafficking-in-persons-report-2/yemen/ . [11 November 2020].
[8] UNHCR 2020, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2019. Available from: https://www.unhcr.org/en-au/statistics/unhcrstats/5ee200e37/unhcr-global-trends-2019.html.
[9] University of Nottingham 2020, Slavery and trafficking occurs in 90 per cent of recent wars and conflicts, new research shows. Available from: https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/news/slavery-trafficking-in-90-per-cent-recent-wars-conflicts. [11 November 2020].
[10] Global Slavery Index, 2018, Walk Free, Available from: https://www.globalslaveryindex.org/resources/downloads/
[11] Clarke, R 1995, ‘Situational Crime Prevention,’ Crime and Justice, Available from: DOI: 10.1086/449230. [22 April 2020].
[12] United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 1994, Human Development Report 1994 – New Dimensions of Human Security, Oxford University Press. Available from: http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-report-1994. [2 December 2019]